MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN UKRAINE: A PEST-BASED ANALYSIS OF THREATS

Abstract

This study examines macroeconomic stability in Ukraine under contemporary challenges. It uses PEST-analysis as a tool for the systematic assessment of the external environment. The study synthesizes key political, economic, social, and technological factors. These factors shape the current state and future prospects of macroeconomic stability in the country within the context of Sustainable Development Goals 8 and 17. The political component shows that the security situation remains a key driver of economic dynamics. Military risks and related uncertainty significantly limit investment activity. They also complicate budget planning. The economic analysis shows that Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability depends largely on public finances. Inflationary pressures arise from rising energy costs, disrupted supply chains, and monetary imbalances. These processes reduce household purchasing power and weaken business activity. The social dimension of macroeconomic stability highlights long-term challenges relating to demographic change and labor market transformation. The technological component of the PEST analysis reveals both constraints and development opportunities. Significant damage to critical infrastructure, especially energy and transport systems, disrupts production processes and logistics. Dependence on imported technologies in strategic sectors increases the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. The findings indicate that macroeconomic stability in Ukraine emerges from a complex interaction of external and internal factors. High political and security risks combine with structural economic imbalances and persistent social challenges. This research was carried out as part of Project No. 2025.05/0015, funded by a grant from the President of Ukraine, awarded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.